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Economic concerns grew before Bank of Korea abolition, minutes show
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Economic concerns grew before Bank of Korea abolition, minutes show

(Bloomberg) — Concerns about economic dynamics grew among Bank of Korea board members, according to minutes of their Oct. 11 meeting, during which the majority decided to reduce the benchmark interest rate of 25 basis points to initiate a policy change.

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At least five of the seven members expressed some level of concern over slowing economic growth, weaker-than-expected consumption or challenges facing small businesses, according to minutes released by the BOK on Tuesday. The US presidential election, the conflict in the Middle East and the slowdown in the Chinese economy are other factors increasing economic uncertainties, according to some members.

The decision to cut the rate to 3.25 percent was opposed by one member, whom Governor Rhee Chang-yong identified as Chang Yongsung in a post-decision meeting. The minutes show the MP said the BOK should wait for clearer signs that property prices and household debt were falling, as a rate cut could revive the property market.

Most members who voted for the cut shared their concerns about house prices, but believed there were enough signs of a slowdown to allow the BOK to ease the restrictive nature of its policy rate now . A 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which eased pressure on the won, also helped pave the way for the BOK to change course, one member said.

The BOK will then meet to make a decision on rates in late November, with most economists expecting rates to hold. Speculation about a faster-than-expected easing cycle, however, has increased since the BOK announced last week that the economy barely grew in the last quarter compared to the previous three months.

The BOK’s forecast of 2.4% economic growth in 2024 will most likely be revised downward at the next board meeting next month, Rhee told lawmakers on Tuesday. He speculated that this figure could be 2.2% or 2.3%, and added that forecasting for 2025 has become much more difficult due to increasing geopolitical risks and the weakening of export volumes.

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