Crystal balls are considered useful items, but they are very difficult for investors to find. For better or worse, investors in Plug in the power (SOCKET 1.59%) Stocks have something very close to a crystal ball: hard numbers, presented by management and Wall Street analysts, telling us where Plug Power stock should be in five years.

Are you considering investing in America’s best-known pioneer in the field? hydrogen fuel cells and do you intend to hold the shares for the long term rather than just trading them? If so, it’s probably a good idea to at least consider these numbers before making your decision.

Where is Plug Power stock today

Plug Power released its third quarter results just a few weeks ago, and it was some kind of disaster. Not only did Plug report a significant net loss of $211.2 million. (That wasn’t surprising. Plug has only reported a quarterly profit once in its 27-year history.) Its sales also fell 13% year over year to $173.7 million.

Although Plug saw strong growth in hydrogen fuel sales (up 54%), equipment sales (fuel cells) fell 26%. Since hydrogen demand depends on customers purchasing fuel cells, the sharp decline in fuel cell demand bodes poorly for future growth in the sector. both these companies.

With just one quarter left until the end of 2024, Plug expects sales to be between $700 million and $800 million this year. Wall Street analysts agree – at least with the low end of that estimate. Consensus forecasts call for Plug to make $715 million in revenue this year, down 20% from 2023.

What Plug Power plans to do by 2030

So, 2024 doesn’t look great for Plug Power. But what about the future?

At its “2024 Plug Symposium” in New York last week, Plug outlined its plans for the next five or six years to investors, predicting a return to revenue growth between 2025 and 2030. Indeed, as early as the year Next, growth is expected to resume as Plug increases its revenue to between $850 million and $950 million. Earnings will remain negative, but management expects this to change over time.

Over the next five years, Plug plans to increase its sales by an average of 30% annually, with a goal of reaching $3.75 billion in annual sales by 2030. Plug expects that two halves of its activity, both hydrogen production and fuel cell sales, will achieve this growth. rate. With greater volume, the company hopes to achieve gains in scale and transform its gross profit margin positive first, then increase it to 30%.

What Analysts Think Plug Power Will Gain in 2030

Wall Street analysts generally agree with these projections. According to the latest estimates of S&P Global Market Intelligenceanalysts predict that Plug Power will hit $1 billion in revenue next year and exceed $3 billion (actually, $3 billion)..1 billion) in 2030.

Additionally, they forecast that Plug will earn positive net income in 2029 ($0.07 per share). Granted, that means anyone buying Plug stock today is paying 27 times their earnings. NOW for profits that won’t be realized for five or six years – which seems a bit expensive.

Then again, if the analysts are right, once Plug finally becomes profitable, its earnings are expected to quickly increase as much as 12 times over the next four years.

Is Plug Power stock a buy?

Yet Plug has been wrong in his predictions before – just like Wall Street.

For example, from 2013Plug Power told investors it would make a break-even profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) by 2014. Ten years later, Plug’s EBITDA margin is still negative 150%. In the same way, in 2017Wall Street analysts predict positive net income for Plug by 2019. Plug, however, fell short of this goal in 2019.

Plug also hasn’t made a profit in 2020, 2021, 2022 or 2023. (And 2024 isn’t looking so good either).

All this is to say that when Wall Street tells you that Plug Power will turn a profit in 2029 — a decade after it said Plug would turn a profit in 2019, and it doesn’t — that prediction has a sort of ” the boy who cried wolf.

If you want to buy Plug stock because you think fuel cells are good for the environment and you don’t care too much about making money on your investment, then by all means buy it. Just know what you’re getting into before you do it and…warn the investor.