close
close

tub-blois

Breaking: Beyond Headlines!

Four reasons why Indiana is the most intriguing contender in the 12-team College Football Playoff
aecifo

Four reasons why Indiana is the most intriguing contender in the 12-team College Football Playoff

College Football Playoff expansion has been achieved for teams such as Indiana.

Coach Curt “Google Me” Cignetti and the Hoosiers are having one of the great seasons in program history. Indiana football dates back to the 1880s, and this is the first time the score has been 9-0. The Hoosiers have never won as many as 10 games in a season, a mark they could reach Saturday against Michigan. Indiana, which has beaten the Wolverines only 10 times in 72 meetings, is favored by 14 1/2 points over the defending national champions, by BetMGM. It’s a stunning sentence.

Indiana’s rise from 3-9 to a relentless bulldozer flattening everything in its path under a first-year coach is one of the stories of the season. The fact that it coincides with a new playoff format meant to reward more teams is perfect timing. Instead of being sent to a bowl game to potentially face an opponent with a large portion of its starting lineup opting out, the ultimate Cinderella team will get to play for the national title.

Maybe.

Indiana landed at No. 8 the first ranking of the selection committee Tuesday eveningthe first CFP Top 25 in the new 12-team format, entering as the No. 9 seed, facing the No. 8 seed Tennessee (ranked No. 7 overall) in the first round.

The Hoosiers’ overall value has the potential to be the most fascinating case study of the first year of this new system, a Rorschach test for the committee and fans. What do you see in the Hoosiers: a good team that beats the punching bags, or a team capable of taking on the best in the country?

Just to be clear, we’re not assuming anything.

We wouldn’t dare suggest Cignetti, quarterback Kurtis Rourkerushing terror Mikaïl Kamara and company are unable to finish a regular season undefeated – that would include a win against No. 3 Ohio State — and head into the Big Ten title game with a spot in the CFP secure, simply playing for seeding.

The Austin Mock Model Indiana has an 85 percent chance of making the playoffs, although its odds of winning the Big Ten are only 10 percent. For what? Indiana could very well lose to Ohio State on November 23. At 11-1 with a loss to the Buckeyes – for the sake of this exercise, let’s make the outcome of the game less than a nail-biter but not quite an Ohio State. blowout – Indiana would likely be left out of the Big Ten championship game.

It’s easy to say that an 11-1 Big Ten team is a lock. And believe us, everyone at the conference office in Rosemont, Illinois will make that point. But Indiana could be a test case for several CFP selection theories.

go further

GO DEEPER

2024 College Football Playoff Projections: Indiana’s rise continues as Clemson scrambles

How does the committee assess the strength of the schedule?

It would be difficult to argue that a serious contender for an at-large CFP bid has played a weaker schedule so far than Indiana. None of the countless measures of schedule strength look favorably on the Hoosier roster thus far. ESPN’s FPI ranks the Indiana SOS 103rd out of 134 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The only other Power 4 team ranked outside the top 90 is Utah at 100. Mock ranks Indiana’s past strength at 82nd and its remaining strength at 22nd.

Recent improvement by Washington And UCLA should help the Hoosiers. This is not the case with the Nebraska slide. The Hoosiers’ non-conference schedule was particularly weak (FIU, Western Illinois and Charlotte), and they won’t take as much of an impact in this weekend’s game against Michigan (5-4) as they probably expected a month ago. But of course, Ohio State will give Indiana a big boost. It doesn’t seem fair that the Hoosiers’ season could go the way it’s going in Columbus, but if they have to be thrown into a pile with an at-large group of contenders that includes a handful of 10-2 SEC teams – like, let’s say, Alabama – just having one less loss may not be a deal breaker.

Are you skeptical of computers? What if this from Fox’s Chris Fallicawho pointed out that Indiana could finish 11-1 with zero wins against teams receiving just one point in the AP Top 25.

go further

GO DEEPER

College Football Playoff seeding predictions: What will the committee do with Notre Dame?

It’s not just who you play, it’s how you play

Indiana is a trolley. The committee doesn’t actually use a metric called Game Control, but the Hoosiers would be the kings of it.

“The way they played in those games and the dominance they showed in those games … was really impressive to the committee,” said selection committee chairman Warde Manuel, who is the athletic director from Michigan. “So we couldn’t ignore that because it was about their rankings and how we viewed them, even though strength of schedule is important, we looked at those games as well.”

Indiana leads the nation in margin against FBS opponents with 27.8 points per game. Last week against Michigan Statethey fell behind for the first time all season, then scored 47 straight points to win 47-10.

The committee does not emphasize the margin of victory so as not to encourage the score to rise. It’s a silly nod to sportsmanship, because real running races are so rare. However, dominance manifests itself in other ways and you can’t miss it with the Hoosiers. The same metrics that don’t like Indiana’s schedule and adjust for the quality of opponents still like what’s happening with the Hoosiers. Indiana is 10th in FPI, just behind undefeated Miami and right in front State of Pennsylvania.

Indiana beats bad and mediocre opponents like an elite team would.

The power of the Big Ten

Let’s call it what it is: The Big Ten and SEC sent a message to the selection committee: We are better than these other leagues and should be treated as such.

Will the committee recognize this point? What happens if there is a “bid stealing” situation in the ACC or Big 12? For example, what would happen if Miami lost the ACC championship game and fell to 12-1 in the overall pool? What if Indiana was ruled against 12-1 BYU in similar circumstances?

go further

GO DEEPER

College Football Playoff rankings and superconferences: Will the committee be influenced by Big Ten, SEC?

The eye test and the power of the logo

Often when we talk about eye exams, we mean: how do you recruit? This is where it becomes especially difficult for Indiana to draw comparisons to SEC teams. Alabama, Tennessee, LSUTexas A&M and Ole Mademoiselle everyone looks really good coming off the bus, and we know they have teams capable of competing at a high level – even if their resumes lack pop. I’m looking at you, Tennessee.

How much does brand equity factor into the process? Put Alabama on one side and Indiana on the other, and ask someone who’s better. How about an 11-1 head-to-head Notre Dame and 11-1 Indiana?

Of course, there could be plenty of room for all of these teams, depending on how things shake out in the country.

Welcome to the College Football Playoff race, Hoosiers. Your inclusion has made the next month much more interesting.

(Photo: Michael Reaves/Getty Images)