THE College Football Playoff Format is entirely different this year after expanding from four to 12 teams, and the new format features rules such as the five highest-ranked conference champions automatically getting a playoff berth, followed by the next seven highest-ranked teams.

Although the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion is also guaranteed a playoff spot, G5 teams are not limited to just one playoff team if there are multiple highly ranked teams. Additionally, Power Four conference champions are also not automatically assigned a spot.

As a result, depending on how Week 14 and the conference title games play out, a Power Four conference champion could be left out of the 12-team playoff field. And that could lead to the Big 12 being excluded from the CFP.

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No. 16 Arizona State is the top-ranked team in the Big 12 in Week 14

In the College Football Playoff Committee’s Fourth Rankingthe Big 12 has five teams in the top 25. That seems good at first, until you realize the Sun Devils are the highest-ranked team at 16th with a 9-2 record.

The Mountain West’s 11th-ranked Boise State with a win Friday over Oregon State moved the Broncos to 11-1 heading into their conference title game, which they are favored to win, according to BetMGM. If they win the Mountain West, there’s a good chance they’ll be the fourth-highest ranked conference champion.

So who would be the fifth highest-ranked conference title winner?

Currently, next in the Big 12 are No. 18 Iowa State (9-2), No. 19 BYU (9-2), No. 24 Kansas State (8-3) and No. °25 of Colorado, which is now 9-3 after a dominant victory on Friday.

In conference play, Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State and Colorado entered Week 14 with a 6-2 record. If they all win this weekend, there will be a four-way tie at the top of the Big 12 standings at 7-2, and with the conference tiebreaker rulesthat would put Arizona State and Iowa State in the Big 12 title game.

If the Big 12’s 6-2 teams don’t all advance to 7-2 this weekend, things could get tough for the Big 12 in the playoff race.

The chaos scenario that could keep the Big 12 out of the College Football Playoff

Of the four 6-2 Big 12 teams — Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State and Colorado — playing this week’s games, only the Wildcats and Cyclones will face each other in Week 14. Colorado beat Oklahoma State on Friday, and the Sun Devils will face Arizona on the road on Saturday.

The Big 12 will have at least one two-loss conference champion, but it could be a three-loss champion. If Arizona State loses to Arizona, Iowa State loses to Kansas State *and* BYU loses to Houston, there could be a narrow path for a Group of Five conference championnamely the winner of the American Athletic Conference, to be the fifth highest ranked conference champion in the College Football Playoff standings.

No. 17 Tulane’s loss to Memphis in Week 14 helps the Big 12…

…but only to a certain extent.

The Green Wave entered Week 14 with a 9-2 record, but are now 9-3 after losing their regular season closer to unranked Memphis, which is now 10-2. Army (9-1) and Tulane are still set to play for the American Athletic Conference title, meaning the conference will have a one-loss champion or a three-loss champion.

Would that be enough to overtake the two- or three-loss Big 12 conference champion in the College Football Playoff rankings? We’ll just have to wait and see.

If it comes to Tulane with three losses, the AAC probably won’t get past the Big 12 champion. But if Army blows out Tulane with just one loss, the Black Knights would likely rejoin the College Football Playoff rankings and *might* end up being ranked higher than the Big 12 champion.

And if the Mountain West and AAC champions are seeded higher than the Big 12 champion, the Big 12 would likely be on the outside of the CFP this season.